For Sweden, a nation that had adhered to military neutrality for more than two centuries, the decision to pursue NATO membership in 2022 signified a historic departure. This shift in position, prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, indicates a re-evaluation of Sweden's security priorities and a willingness to actively engage in Euro-Atlantic security.
This week marks a significant turn in the annals of geopolitics. Hungary’s parliament finally gave the geen light to Sweden’s long-awaited NATO accession, breaking an 18-month deadlock fueled by objections from Turkey and Hungary. It’s a monumental moment not only for Sweden but also for the shifting dynamics in Northern Europe, especially in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
For over two centuries, Sweden maintained a steadfast policy of military nonalignment, even as it maintained a functional relationship with NATO since the Cold War era. However, the decision to seek NATO membership in 2022 marked a significant departure spurred by Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. This move indicates a profound recalibration of Sweden’s security imperatives, demonstrating a proactive commitment to Euro-Atlantic security affairs.
“Now that all Allies have approved, Sweden will become the 32nd #NATO Ally, Sweden’s membership will make us all stronger and safer.”
– NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg In a statement on X
The reluctance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his ties with Russia, had been a crucial stumbling block for Sweden in the NATO membership process. However, the impasse was ultimately resolved through a diplomatic reconciliation between Orbán and his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, during discussions in Budapest.
A pivotal outcome of these negotiations was the announcement of a defense industry agreement, symbolized by Hungary’s decision to procure Swedish-made JAS 39 Gripen jets. This agreement not only reinforces Hungary’s military capabilities but also signifies a joint commitment to NATO operations — an intriguing diplomatic maneuver that underscores the complex nature of negotiations involved in securing consensus among international alliances and navigating geopolitical interests.
Calling Monday “a historic day”, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced on X, “The parliaments of all NATO member states have now voted in favor of Swedish accession to NATO. Sweden stands ready to shoulder its responsibility for Euro-Atlantic security”
Remarkably Sweden’s accession also occurs amidst growing uncertainty about NATO’s future, with U.S. Republican front-runner Donald Trump threatening to reconsider security assurances for parts of Europe.
Russia, an outspoken adversary of NATO’s enlargement, views such advancements as a security threat. President Putin has consistently expressed reservations, tying his actions in Ukraine to NATO’s expansion. The applications for NATO membership by Sweden and Finland in 2022, followed by their accession in April 2023, have further intensified Moscow’s concerns. The evident response from Russia, characterized by the restructuring of military districts and heightened tension in the Baltic Sea, underscores the strategic implications of these Nordic nations aligning with NATO.
Reshapes the strategic calculus
As bureaucratic steps towards formalizing Sweden’s NATO membership progress, the geopolitical landscape in Northern Europe undergoes a transformation. Russia, averse to NATO’s expanding influence along its borders, now faces a stronger alliance presence. The coming days will witness a formal endorsement of Sweden’s NATO bid, inviting the nation to accede to the Washington Treaty and solidifying its position as NATO’s 32nd member—a move that reshapes the strategic calculus in the region.
A resurgent NATO is solidifying control over the Baltic Sea, altering the strategic landscape in Russia’s vicinity. With Sweden gaining support to join NATO and Finland participating in its first summit as a member, the alliance’s influence in the region is set to grow significantly. The Baltic Sea, once dominated by Moscow, is evolving into a NATO-controlled domain, complicating vital transit routes for Russia.
As Sweden’s NATO membership progresses, the geopolitical landscape in Northern Europe undergoes transformation.
The inclusion of both Nordic nations, Finland and Sweden, into NATO as members signifies a notable change in the regional landscape. The Baltic Sea, historically vital for the Russian fleet with bases in St. Petersburg and the heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, is showing a noticeable inclination toward NATO regions. This development substantially extends NATO’s border with Russia, strengthens defense in Northern Europe, and reinforces the credibility of the alliance’s deterrence.
Formerly confined to Denmark and Germany during the Cold War, NATO’s footprint in the Baltic Sea region expanded with Poland’s accession in 1999 and the inclusion of the three Baltic republics in 2004. The recent developments further tighten the alliance’s control over this strategic maritime gateway.
In addition to altering the security dynamics in Northern Europe, Sweden and Finland joining NATO also extends the alliance’s presence into the Arctic. This expansion is particularly significant given the growing strategic importance of the Arctic region for both Russia and China.
As NATO’s influence solidifies in the Baltic Sea and extends into the Arctic, the geopolitical landscape undergoes a notable transformation, posing new challenges and opportunities in this strategically vital area.
However, analysts caution that even though Sweden’s inclusion facilitates NATO’s ability to establish control and strengthen its susceptible Baltic states, Russia retains the capacity to pose a threat to the region through its heavily fortified exclave, Kaliningrad, and to jeopardize undersea infrastructure.
Authored by: Queenie Nair
