We live in an era of disruptive transformations. New technologies and new innovations challenge the ways in which we interact in economic, social and political life. We have to constantly adapt to new circumstances. At a certain level, it has enabled us to leapfrog the stages of development and improve the living conditions of people.
In Asia, we see the dawn of a new age. The Asian century is coming into being. Economic growth and citizen empowerment are driving aspirations. Asia can play a leading role in three ongoing transformations, which could influence global dynamics.
Transition from geo-economics to geo-strategy: Over the last five decades, Asian economies have registered growth above global levels. It began with the economic growth of the Asian tigers, followed by ASEAN economies, and then China and India, which shifted the geo-economic gravity from the Atlantic towards Asia. Asia not only became a manufacturing and services hub, but also saw improved connectivity, increase in financial muscle and technological prowess and growth of institutions. However, the transition from economic power to strategic power is in a nascent stage. The idea of Indo-Pacific, ASEAN-plus mechanisms and the growing leverage of China and India are elements of the geo-strategic power of Asia, which will grow further.
Voice of Global South: The economic growth and social development of developing countries, across Asia and Africa, has given rise to empowerment and aspiration among its youthful population and confidence to society and government. These are the voices of the global South. They are not happy that multilateral institutions are unable to respond to their problems or mechanisms of global governance are insensitive to their concerns. They seek reform of international institutions to reflect the concerns and interests in the contemporary world and provide better participation for developing countries. They also seek the establishment of new institutions, which can respond better to the expectations of the new age. The Global South has new ideas, from its civilisational traditions as also the fusion with western ideas, which can be a positive influence on global governance.
China in a churn: The spectacular rise of China as a significant power with global outreach is over. The economic slowdown is accompanied by tapering of foreign investment, weakening of market forces, concentration of political power and an aging society. China’s share in global output and trade may decline in the second half of 21st century. However, as the second largest economy with global aspirations, its leverage would continue. China would become one of the poles in the new multipolar order. Other Asian economies may have to carve growth trajectories that are more independent or with newer powers.
The transformations in Asia are truly momentous. They provide opportunities for the corporate world to forge partnerships, based on equality and mutual benefit, in a globalised world. There are four key partnerships that will consolidate and deepen the benefits of the Asian century.
Supply chains: Corporates rely on relationships for efficient and reliable value and supply chains with global partners. Comparative advantage, critical resources and technologies and logistics networks make partnerships essential in the age of globalisation. At the same time strength in manufacturing and services remain essential for building comprehensive national strength. Corporates are best equipped to synergise the opportunity for sustainable partnerships.
Mobility: Human capital is a critical resource but faces impediments of mobility. The establishment of migration and mobility partnerships, at corporate instance and with government support, can provide mobility to professional and skilled workers to new industry and services. Besides, certain societies are aging fast and could benefit from those having youthful demography.
Innovation bridge: Technology and innovation will remain the principal vector for future growth. Knowledge is a vibrant input that yields the highest returns. Corporate collaborations to establish innovation bridges across boundaries will not only encourage R&D, new technology and new innovation reach markets in the most efficient manner but also facilitate new start-ups to enter the market, scale up activities and engage in cross-border transactions with the experience and support of mentors and angels.
Economic stability: For long, we have sought to tame animal spirits and market forces to achieve economic stability or harness volatility. Greater investment in market research and collaboration with stakeholders can help corporates stay ahead of the curve and provide means to deal with business cycles more effectively. Demystification of black swans and grey rhinos will help actors stay ahead of the curve and weather the storm.
The advent of the Asian century comes with the ethos of ancient civilisations, celebration of diversity, practice of plurality, pursuit of excellence, experience of western practices and sharing our common knowledge for mankind. This could be the sustainable model for a better planet.
Sanjay Bhattacharyya, Former Secretary to Ministry of External Affairs, BRICS Sherpa, Ambassador to Switzerland, Turkey and Egypt
