A disconcerting announcement from the United Nations casts a foreboding shadow over the year ahead: 2024 is poised to potentially surpass the temperatures that rocked the globe in 2023. At the heart of this warning lies the enduring presence of El Niño, a force of nature that commands attention for its role in exacerbating the climate crisis. As we confront the complexities of El Niño’s influence, it becomes increasingly clear that urgent and decisive action is imperative to stem the tide of rising temperatures and mitigate the profound impact on our planet’s delicate ecosystems. This sobering reality underscores the pressing need for aggressive emissions reduction measures, as we stand at a critical juncture in the battle against climate change.
This emphasizes the importance of closely observing the ongoing shifts in oceanic and atmospheric conditions. As the consequences of this potent El Niño event persist, influencing weather patterns and global climate systems, the alert from the World Meteorological Organization underscores the need to remain vigilant and prepared for potential climate-related repercussions arising from the prolonged impact of the El Niño phenomenon.
Climate Impact:
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) brings attention to an unsettling trend of new monthly temperature records set between June and December 2023.
“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record — and 2023 was, by far, the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Nino. But sea-surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past 10 months. The January 2024 sea-surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Nino alone.”
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
Credit: Climate Copernicus
NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt adds nuance to the forecast, emphasising a 50-50 chance of 2024 witnessing even warmer temperatures. Schmidt alludes to “mysterious” climate system changes, urging the scientific community to collect more data for precise confirmation or refutation. The implication is clear – El Niño’s impact is not only pronounced but introduces unprecedented uncertainties in our understanding of climate dynamics.
The aftermath of El Niño’s influence in February manifested in extreme heat, notably in Texas and the central U.S., where temperatures shattered previous records. Simultaneously, the Great Lakes experienced a historic low in ice extent, disrupting the conventional winter equilibrium. El Niño’s sway, particularly through the Pacific Jet, significantly contributed to these anomalies by deflecting the coldest air away, altering the atmospheric equilibrium that regions have come to rely on.
What it means for India
Recent forecasts from NOAA suggest that the Northern Hemisphere may encounter particularly robust El Niño effects starting from February 2024, with the potential for historically significant impacts. In India, historical data indicates that past El Niño occurrences have predominantly resulted in diminished monsoon rainfall, a trend that seems to be continuing since 2023 with reduced precipitation levels already observed. This trend could lead to severe drought conditions and heightened temperatures, further exacerbating the challenges posed by climate change. For 2024, there are indications of elevated temperatures post-February, raising concerns about exceptionally hot summers. While the full extent of El Niño’s impact on the Indian monsoon, expected in June 2024, remains uncertain, the period from February to June could see significant heatwaves.
This weather pattern typically results in increased rainfall in southern regions but poses the risk of dry spells and potential droughts in northern areas, which could have adverse effects on crop yields, particularly for staple crops like maize, rice, and wheat. Such disruptions could have profound implications for food security, triggering global food price inflation and potentially leading to food shortages and water scarcity in various regions.
Call to Action
The escalating impact of El Niño-induced climate change demands an immediate and robust response. Governments, industries, and individuals must transcend rhetoric and actively engage in substantive emissions cuts. Prioritising sustainable practices, embracing renewable energy sources, and participating in conservation efforts are pivotal components of a collective approach to mitigating the enduring consequences of this environmental challenge.
As the 2023-24 El Niño gradually weakens, our planet grapples with the repercussions of one of the five strongest El Niños on record. The urgency lies in collaborative global efforts to reduce emissions and implement sustainable practices. Effectively addressing the evolving threat of climate change, exacerbated by El Niño, requires proactive measures that will determine the long-term sustainability of our planet. The time for action is now, as we navigate a climate landscape reshaped by the intricate dance of El Niño’s enduring impact.
Edited by
Queenie Nair
