“Global Democracy at Crossroads: Analyzing Electoral Integrity in the 2024 International Elections”

As we navigate through the unfolding crises and electoral events of 2024, it becomes evident that this year is destined to be geopolitically tumultuous.

Coined as the ‘election year’, 2024 stands as a pivotal event that carries the potential to redefine global political landscapes as nations worldwide grapple with the intricate challenges of not only the elections but maintaining intricacies of the process as well. What amplifies the intricacy of this situation is the simultaneous occurrence of elections in some of the world’s major economies, such as the United States, India, Russia, Indonesia, and Mexico. each ensnared in a turbulent mix of disputes, legal confrontations, and threats to the very foundations of democracy.  It’s a scenario that underscores the unprecedented nature of the times we are living in – never before in history have more than 50 countries been in an electoral mode within a single year

Moreover in the midst of the global electoral fervor, a growing concern looms large – the alarming trend of a declining arena for political competition, critics and the erosion of democratic institutions. Of particular note is the unsettling weakening of the judiciary, which customarily functions as a check on the power and influence of concerned parties within the political arena. While these elections may ostensibly appear impartial, the fairness of the democratic process is compromised. Importantly, this issue is not confined to a specific region; it is a global challenge that transcends economies, affecting major and influential nations alike.

China Angle

On another note, a crucial aspect to consider is the China angle, given the significant implications the upcoming elections hold for China’s foreign policy, particularly with major elections taking place in Taiwan, South Africa, and India.

On January 13, William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won Taiwan’s presidential election with 40% of the vote. However, the DPP lost its legislative majority, securing 51 seats compared to the opposition Kuomintang’s (KMT) 52. China’s response has been relatively measured, seemingly prioritizing U.S.-China relations over immediate cross-strait ambitions.

Predictably, China will intensify pressure on Taiwan over the next five months, aiming to convey to the Taiwanese people that there are consequences for persistently voting the DPP into power. While it will consequently seek to influence Lai’s approach to cross-strait relations. Experts have predicted  that In response, Taiwan is likely to strengthen its defense capabilities and foster a closer relationship with Washington to discourage Beijing from contemplating an invasion.

Meanwhile, Lai will need to deliver his electoral promises, particularly in addressing socio-economic issues, such as employment, cost of living, education, and the social care system. Navigating these complexities will serve as a litmus test for the for the effectiveness of Taiwan’s diplomacy, in Beijing.

American presidential election

Insecurity looms over the 2024 American presidential election, driven with a growing list of international crises fuelling partisan conflicts in Congress over foreign policy priorities, indicating justified fears about America’s future commitments.

Concerns about America’s future are heightened by its presidential candidate Trump’s the now infamous national litigations – 91 in all and his threat to withdraw the US from NATO, if re-elected, posing a potential risk of increased instability across Europe. Additionally, the Israel-Hamas war is being leveraged by Trump-supporting Republicans to curtail US support for Ukraine, and President Biden’s decision to meet Xi Jinping during the APEC summit in November has faced criticism, adding another layer of complexity to the landscape of the upcoming elections.

Mexico

Mexico stands on the brink of a historic moment, potentially electing its first female president either Claudia Sheinbaum or Xóchitl Gálvez. The outcome bears immense significance, entrusting the winner with navigating the nation’s complex challenges, particularly concerning drug-related violence and a rapidly evolving military landscape.

Human rights, especially women’s rights, take center stage as Mexico considers its first female president. López Obrador’s stance on human rights organizations, the feminist movement, and issues like military espionage raises concerns, prompting questions about reversing these trends and advancing justice-oriented policies during the 2024 presidential transition.

Amid this pivotal moment, heightened violence against participants in the electoral process is anticipated, and has already been witnessed by the murders of individuals seeking political. President López Obrador’s lack of a legislative supermajority hampers constitutional reforms, but hopefully for Mexico the June elections could change this, opening the door for lasting institutional changes. The impact of the elections extends beyond democratic institutions to security and human rights. Whether the ruling MORENA party retains the presidency or there is a change, a political transition doesn’t guarantee advancements in the democratic or human rights agenda.

Indonesia

On February 14, Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest democracy with a voting bank of over 200 million people across 38 provinces, participated in what was touted as the world’s largest single-day election. Based on unofficial results from the state-owned news organization, Prabowo Subianto, 72, has reportedly garnered close to 60% of the vote, eliminating the need for a presidential runoff.

Since Indonesia’s transition to democracy in 1998, voting has evolved into a celebrated civic act, every five years apparent free and fair elections seemingly result in the replacement of about half of their lawmakers. Despite the vibrant electoral process, Indonesia’s democracy is still shaped by leaders from the political, business, and military sectors who while they agreed to democratize under public pressure, have established electoral rules to create barriers for new players.

Prabowo, hailing from an elite political family, has a controversial past, particularly during the late dictator Suharto’s years, who was also his former father-in-law. Accusations of human rights violations in his military past have followed him throughout his political career. While the outcome of this year’s election may favor Indonesia, it also sparks concerns regarding the resurgence of dynasty politics, nuanced nepotism, corruption, and the potential return to authoritarian rule.

Russia

This might be deemed the most notorious move of all –  Putin’s declaration to pursue a fifth presidential term in the upcoming March elections does not astound the world. Putin, has solidified his dominance over Russia’s political system and media for the past two decades, the apparent formality towards democracy and the upcoming elections offer little room for surprise in an increasingly conservative nation profoundly impacted by war, where dissent has been criminalized, and key opposition figures like Alexei Navalny and Ilya Yashin are either exiled dead or incarcerated.

The elections also encompass new territories, as voting occurs in regions Russia designates as its own but are parts of Ukraine currently under Russian occupation. Geopolitical experts assert that these elections serve as a means for Putin to legitimize his decision to engage in the conflict in Ukraine.

India

A significant development is the recent ruling by India’s Supreme Court to abolish the electoral bonds programme, permitting anonymous donations to political parties since 2017. The absence of accountability and transparency in this system had garnered much criticism, sparking international discussions on electoral integrity and setting a new standard for other countries facing comparable difficulties.

The scrapping of the electoral bonds scheme in India highlights a global concern: the influence of wealth on political processes. Affluent individuals and corporations wield disproportionate power in numerous countries, raising concerns about the fairness and transparency of elections. This underscores the need for stringent regulations to ensure transparent political financing aligning with democratic principles.

However, the challenges facing electoral systems extend beyond financial influence. The relentless spread of misinformation and disinformation remains a significant threat to the sanctity of elections worldwide. False narratives and misleading information have the potential to sway public opinion and undermine trust in electoral processes. Confronting this issue demands a united effort by governments, civil society, and the media to promote accurate information and ensure voters are well-informed.

Moreover, technological advancements continuously introduce new vulnerabilities to electoral systems, ranging from cyberattacks to social media manipulation. These threats highlight the critical need for robust cybersecurity measures and effective regulation of online platforms.

In essence, 2024’s elections are set to wield significant influence across critical aspects, delineating the trajectory of democratic institutions, the realm of national security, and that of civil society. The outcomes of these elections hold the potential to mold the foundational structures of democracy, determine the strategies and policies implemented for ensuring the security of the nation and its people, and set the course for safeguarding and advancing human rights. The decisions made during this pivotal electoral period will extend their impact across these multifaceted domains, leaving an indelible mark on the global socio-political landscape for years to come.