Ambition is valid, but readiness falls short for a threefold rise in RE & doubling energy efficiency: KPMG

While many of the technological answers are there, major issues will need to be addressed

Speaking with ET EDGE INSIGHTS, Anish De, KPMG’s Global Head of Energy & Natural Resources, indicated that while it could be early to assert complete success, the COP 28 accord signifies a significant advancement. The forum acknowledged prevailing challenges, promoted open dialogue, and emphasized ethical considerations. Nevertheless, concerns remain about the sufficiency and non-binding character of the measures, especially given the pressing climate emergency.

During the recent COP28 summit, approximately 200 nations endorsed an unparalleled agreement aiming to eradicate dependence on fossil fuels. Will this historic achievement address the primary challenge and propel the acceleration of worldwide initiatives toward a sustainable future? If so, what specific efforts will be necessary to achieve this goal?

The specific language of the COP 28 declaration is “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade”.  As such this only sends a directional signal on reducing reliance on fossil fuels over a period, which is welcome.  However, the eventuality of the “elimination” of fossil fuels will be long drawn.  The key reason is of course the absence of available alternatives to fossil fuels on the scale required.  Beyond that there are various established interests and geopolitical challenges to overcome. It is too early to declare victory, by the COP 28 pact is nonetheless a key step forward.

Fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas have been the backbone of global economies, currently accounting for approximately 80% of the world’s energy supply. What kind of initiatives will be required to fulfill the signed obligation?

Low carbon or zero carbon solutions on both the supply and demand sides would need to be evolved as credible alternatives to fossil fuels – principally renewable energy and energy efficiency.  It will also be necessary to take an energy systems view which would entail transmission and storage dovetailed with the renewable energy measures. Demand flexibility/demand response would also be key.  However, given the 80% plus reliance on fossil fuels this will inevitably take time.

The pact urges nations to expedite a global transition away from fossil fuels in a manner that is “just, orderly, and equitable.” In your perspective, what systematic and fair procedures could facilitate countries in making sustainable transitions toward greener alternatives?

Several things will need to fall in place including technology and technology transfer, revamping of supply chains, concessional finance for the developing countries, transition support, effective implementation of loss and damage mechanisms, etc. These will often involve significant sums of money.  As of now, there is not enough visibility.  Reducing the risks for the investments will also be essential and these multilateral agencies will have a key role to play.

The agreement also urged a threefold increase in global renewable energy capacity and a doubling of the average annual rate of energy efficiency enhancements globally by 2030. How prepared do you think the world is for this ambitious undertaking?

Though the ambition is valid, the readiness is not quite there for a threefold increase in renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency. While many of the technological answers are there, major issues will need to be addressed on land, permitting, supply chains, finance, transmission, risk management, etc.  This will require major policy interventions and focused implementation actions.  That this must be achieved by 2030 makes it especially hard.  You could refer your readers to the recent KPMG report Turning the Tide in Scaling Renewables report – KPMG Global

What contribution do you envision India making toward achieving the shared global objective of advancing the use of renewable energy for a sustainable future? What specific policy interventions do you believe will be necessary moving forward?

India is committed to renewable energy and energy efficiency and will meet its Paris commitments.  I do expect further focus and attention to these post-COP 28.  However, India’s economic growth with require pursuing all forms of energy to meet the rapidly growing demand since energy poverty is not an option.  In terms of policy, most are in place in India at a national level.  However, many state-level challenges need to be addressed and the development process needs to be debottlenecked. This will also result in many priorities competing with each other because energy, food, water, nature, etc are all a part of a connected ecosystem. Sensitive but expeditious handling would be essential.

Being part of the COP28 yourself, what are the key takeaways that you would like to reflect upon? In your opinion, did the summit overlook a chance to build on the achievements of COP27?

I think on the balance COP 28 managed to keep the 1.5-degree dream alive, if only just so.  Much more would be needed to keep global warming contained at 1.5 degrees or even 2 degrees.  However, given the wide-ranging issues and interests involved around the climate challenges it is practically impossible to cater effectively to all competing demands. The good thing is that the forum recognized the challenges, kept the door for dialogue wide open, and put in some moral checks. There are concerns that the measures are too little in the face of the emergency and are non-binding. True as that may be, in a geopolitically driven world where until recently we have had to contend with powerful denial of climate change and rebuttal of climate science, the consensus of nearly two hundred nations in Dubai is of no mean significance.